Quarantine alone or in combination with other public health measures to control COVID-19: A rapid Cochrane review

In March 2020, the South African government implemented various non-pharmacological prevention and control measures (e.g. isolation, social distancing and quarantine) in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. We summarise evidence from a rapid Cochrane review on the effect of quarantine alone v. quarantine plus combination measures to prevent transmission of and mortality caused by COVID-19. The findings show that when started earlier, quarantine combined with other prevention and control measures can be more effective than quarantine alone, and cost less

The 16-day variation in tidal amplitudes at Grahamstown (33.3° S, 26.5° E)

International audienceMeteor wind data at Grahamstown (33.3° S, 26.5° E) have been used to study the short-term (planetary scale) variations of the diurnal and semidiurnal tidal amplitudes at ~ 90 km altitude. Wavelet multi-resolution and spectral techniques reveal that planetary periodicities of ~ 10 and ~ 16 days dominate the wave spectrum in the ~ 2?20-day period range. The quasi-16-day oscillation is thought to be related to similar oscillations in the lower atmosphere. Also, there seems to be a link between the winter/equinox 16-day oscillation in the mean flow and that in the semidiurnal tidal amplitudes. It is thought that this is probably due to either the coupling between the normal mode-mean flow interactions and the gravity wave-tidal interactions, or to direct nonlinear interactions between planetary waves and the tide. On the other hand, a comparison of the mean flow and the diurnal tide does not show evidence of correlation. Possible reasons for this disparity are discussed briefly

The 16-day variation in the mean flow at Grahamstown (33.3° S, 26.5° E)

International audienceData from the Grahamstown (33.3° S, 26.5° E) meteor radar have been used to study the short-term variations of the mean flow at ~ 90 km altitude. The results show considerable variation characterised by a superposition of fluctuations on different planetary time scales. Wavelet multi-resolution and spectral techniques reveal that the quasi-16-day oscillation dominates the wave spectrum in the ~ 2?20-day period range. This quasi-16-day oscillation, which is thought to be related to a similar oscillation in the lower atmosphere, is found to be dominant in winter and the equinoxes. However, it is sometimes significant in summer, which could be due to cross-equatorial ducting and the selective transmissivity of gravity waves

Modelling to inform next-generation medical interventions for malaria prevention and treatment

Global progress against malaria has stagnated and novel medical interventions to prevent malaria are needed to fill gaps in existing tools and improve protection against infection and disease. Candidate selection for next-generation interventions should be supported by the best available evidence. Target product profiles and preferred product characteristics play a key role in setting selection criteria requirements and early endorsement by health authorities. While clinical evidence and expert opinion often inform product development decisions, integrating modelling evidence early and iteratively into this process provides an opportunity to link product characteristics with expected public health outcomes. Population models of malaria transmission can provide a better understanding of which, and at what magnitude, key intervention characteristics drive public health impact, and provide quantitative evidence to support selection of use-cases, transmission settings, and deployment strategies. We describe how modelling evidence can guide and accelerate development of new malaria vaccines, monoclonal antibodies, and chemoprevention

Bridging the gap: a standards-based approach to OR/MS distributed simulation

Pre-print version. Final version published in ACM Transactions on Modeling and Computer Simulation (TOMACS); available online at http://tomacs.acm.org/In Operations Research and Management Science (OR/MS), Discrete Event Simulation (DES) models are typically created using commercial simulation packages such as Simul8™ and SLX™. A DES model represents the processes associated with a system of interest; but, in cases where the underlying system is large and/or logically divided, the system may be conceptualized as several sub-systems. These sub-systems may belong to multiple stakeholders, and creating an all-encompassing DES model may be difficult for reasons such as, concerns among the intra- and inter-organizational stakeholders with regard to data/information sharing (e.g., security and privacy). Furthermore, issues such as model composability, data transfer/access problems and execution speed may also make a single model approach problematic. A potential solution could be to create/reuse well-defined DES models, each modeling the processes associated with one sub-system, and using distributed simulation technique to execute the models as a unified whole. Although this approach holds great promise, there are technical barriers. One such barrier is the lack of common ground between distributed simulation developers and simulation practitioners. In an attempt to bridge this gap, this paper reports on the outcome of an international standardization effort, the SISO-STD-006-2010 Standard for Commercial-Off-The-Shelf Simulation Package Interoperability References Models (IRMs). This facilitates the capture of interoperability requirements at a modeling level rather than a technical level and enables simulation practitioners and vendors to properly specify the interoperability requirements of a distributed simulation in their terms. Two distributed simulation examples are given to illustrate the use of IRMs

Empirical validation of the InVEST water yield ecosystem service model at a national scale

A variety of tools have emerged with the goal of mapping the current delivery of ecosystem services and quantifying the impact of environmental changes. An important and often overlooked question is how accurate the outputs of these models are in relation to empirical observations. In this paper we validate a hydrological ecosystem service model (InVEST Water Yield Model) using widely available data. We modelled annual water yield in 22 UK catchments with widely varying land cover, population and geology, and compared model outputs with gauged river flow data from the UK National River Flow Archive. Values for input parameters were selected from existing literature to reflect conditions in the UK and were subjected to sensitivity analyses. We also compared model performance between precipitation and potential evapotranspiration data sourced from global- and UK-scale datasets. We then tested the transferability of the results within the UK by additional validation in a further 20 catchments. Whilst the model performed only moderately with global-scale data (linear regression of modelled total water yield against empirical data; slope = 0.763, intercept = 54.45, R2 = 0.963) with wide variation in performance between catchments, the model performed much better when using UK-scale input data, with closer fit to the observed data (slope = 1.07, intercept = 3.07, R2 = 0.990). With UK data the majority of catchments showed less than 10% difference between measured and modelled water yield but there was a minor but consistent overestimate per hectare (86 m3/ha/year). Additional validation on a further 20 UK catchments was similarly robust, indicating that these results are transferable within the UK. These results suggest that relatively simple models can give accurate measures of ecosystem services. However, the choice of input data is critical and there is a need for further validation in other parts of the worl

Composite polyester membranes with embedded dendrimer hosts and bimetallic Fe/Ni nanoparticles: synthesis, characterisation and application to water treatment

This study describes the preparation, characterization and evaluation of new composite membranes with embedded dendrimer hosts and Fe/Ni nanoparticles. These new reactive membranes consist of films of cyclodextrin–poly(propyleneimine) dendrimers (β-CD–PPI) that are deposited onto commercial polysulfone microporous supports and crosslinked with trimesoyl chloride (TMC). The membranes were subsequently loaded with Fe/Ni nanoparticles and evaluated as separation/reactive media in aqueous solutions using 2,4,6-trichlorophenol as model pollutant. The morphology and physicochemical properties of the composite membranes were characterised using high-resolution transmission electron microscopy (HR-TEM), atomic force microscopy and measurements of contact angle, water intake, porosity and water permeability. The sorption capacity and catalytic activity of the membranes were evaluated using ion chromatography, atmospheric pressure chemical ionisation-mass spectrometry and UV–Vis spectroscopy (UV–Vis). The sizes of the embedded Fe/Ni nanoparticles in the membranes ranged from 40 to 66 nm as confirmed by HR-TEM. The reaction rates for the dechlorination of 2,4,6-trichlorophenol ranged from 0.00148 to 0.00250 min−1. In all cases, we found that the reaction by-products consisted of chloride ions and mixtures of compounds including phenol (m/z = 93), 2,4-dichlorophenol (m/z = 163) and 4-chlorophenol (m/z = 128). The overall results of this study suggest that β-CD–PPI dendrimers are promising building blocks for the synthesis of composite and reactive membranes for the efficient removal of chlorinated organic pollutants from water

Carbon sources of Antarctic nematodes as revealed by natural carbon isotope ratios and a pulse-chase experiment

δ13C of nematode communities in 27 sites was analyzed, spanning a large depth range (from 130 to 2,021 m) in five Antarctic regions, and compared to isotopic signatures of sediment organic matter. Sediment organic matter δ13C ranged from −24.4 to −21.9‰ without significant differences between regions, substrate types or depths. Nematode δ13C showed a larger range, from −34.6 to −19.3‰, and was more depleted than sediment organic matter typically by 1‰ and by up to 3‰ in silty substrata. These, and the isotopically heavy meiofauna at some stations, suggest substantial selectivity of some meiofauna for specific components of the sedimenting plankton. However, 13C-depletion in lipids and a potential contribution of chemoautotrophic carbon in the diet of the abundant genus Sabatieria may confound this interpretation. Carbon sources for Antarctic nematodes were also explored by means of an experiment in which the fate of a fresh pulse of labile carbon to the benthos was followed. This organic carbon was remineralized at a rate (11–20 mg C m−2 day−1) comparable to mineralization rates in continental slope sediments. There was no lag between sedimentation and mineralization; uptake by nematodes, however, did show such a lag. Nematodes contributed negligibly to benthic carbon mineralization

Resource Quantity Affects Benthic Microbial Community Structure and Growth Efficiency in a Temperate Intertidal Mudflat

Estuaries cover <1% of marine habitats, but the carbon dioxide (CO2) effluxes from these net heterotrophic systems contribute significantly to the global carbon cycle. Anthropogenic eutrophication of estuarine waterways increases the supply of labile substrates to the underlying sediments. How such changes affect the form and functioning of the resident microbial communities remains unclear. We employed a carbon-13 pulse-chase experiment to investigate how a temperate estuarine benthic microbial community at 6.5°C responded to additions of marine diatom-derived organic carbon equivalent to 4.16, 41.60 and 416.00 mmol C m−2. The quantities of carbon mineralized and incorporated into bacterial biomass both increased significantly, albeit differentially, with resource supply. This resulted in bacterial growth efficiency increasing from 0.40±0.02 to 0.55±0.04 as substrates became more available. The proportions of diatom-derived carbon incorporated into individual microbial membrane fatty acids also varied with resource supply. Future increases in labile organic substrate supply have the potential to increase both the proportion of organic carbon being retained within the benthic compartment of estuaries and also the absolute quantity of CO2 outgassing from these environments